Why Modelo Wins

Mining 4,000+ consumer reviews to decode America's #1 beer

Python Web Scraping
MAXQDA
Custom Dictionaries

The challenge

Everyone Knows Modelo Won. Nobody Knows Why.

So here's the thing. In 2023, Modelo Especial overtook Bud Light to become the best-selling beer in America. That's huge for a brand that started in Tacuba, Mexico back in 1925. But Constellation Brands didn't just want to celebrate. They wanted to understand why people love this beer so much.

I would say the hardest part of this brief was that the answer lives in people's feelings, not in sales data. You can't just look at a spreadsheet and understand why someone keeps choosing Modelo over every other lager on the shelf. So we went to the only place where consumers tell you the truth without being asked: their own reviews, in their own words.

Our approach

We Pulled Reviews From Three Different Places

I learned early in this project that if you only look at one source, you're going to get a biased picture. So we grabbed three completely independent corpora. The first was Constellation's own consumer review database with 1,254 reviews, mostly 4-5 stars. The second was YouTube Shorts comments, 2,105 reviews from a younger, more reactive crowd. And the third was a Python scrape of Walmart product reviews, 844 reviews from everyday household shoppers. We coded everything in MAXQDA using a custom dictionary we built around five themes. Then we ran regression in SPSS to see which themes actually predicted whether someone would say positive things about Modelo. Power BI helped us show the patterns visually for the stakeholders who don't want to read statistics.

4,203

Reviews analyzed

93K+

Total words coded

3

Independent corpora

0.42

R² (Walmart model)

4,203

Reviews analyzed

93K+

Total words coded

3

Independent corpora

0.42

R² (Walmart model)

4,203

Reviews analyzed

93K+

Total words coded

3

Independent corpora

0.42

R² (Walmart model)

4,203

Reviews analyzed

93K+

Total words coded

3

Independent corpora

0.42

R² (Walmart model)

Key Finding

People Talk About Parties. But They Buy Because of Taste

This was the biggest surprise for me. When you read the reviews, "Social Gathering" is everywhere. BBQs, parties, friends, summer nights. You'd think that's the reason people buy Modelo. But when we ran the regression? Personal Enjoyment & Satisfaction was the real driver, coefficient of 0.78 in both datasets. Social Gathering barely moved the needle statistically. I would say this is the kind of insight you can only get when you combine qualitative coding with actual statistics. If we had stopped at the word clouds, we would have told Constellation to focus on party marketing. And we would have been wrong.

The aha moment: People associate Modelo with social gatherings. But they buy it because they personally love how it tastes. Those are two very different things, and you need both qualitative and quantitative methods to see the difference.

The aha moment: People associate Modelo with social gatherings. But they buy it because they personally love how it tastes. Those are two very different things, and you need both qualitative and quantitative methods to see the difference.

The aha moment: People associate Modelo with social gatherings. But they buy it because they personally love how it tastes. Those are two very different things, and you need both qualitative and quantitative methods to see the difference.

The aha moment: People associate Modelo with social gatherings. But they buy it because they personally love how it tastes. Those are two very different things, and you need both qualitative and quantitative methods to see the difference.

Six Themes

What Actually Makes People Choose Modelo

After coding everything, six themes explained why drinkers keep reaching for Modelo. Flavor Profile: light, crisp, well-balanced, easy to drink again and again. Versatility: it pairs naturally with Mexican food, seafood, lime, anything really. Cultural Connection: BBQs, micheladas, authentic Mexican identity that other imports just can't fake. Positive Memories: people tied this beer to specific moments like "I had this in Mexico years ago." Brand Image: premium feel at a regular price point. Availability: Modelo is everywhere you already shop, and that compounds every other advantage.

Recommendations

Three Things Constellation Should Do Next

Based on what we found, I would say Constellation should lean into experiential marketing at festivals and events where people can actually taste the beer and become storytellers. Build influencer partnerships that use the same language consumers already use like "refreshing," "favorite," "good with food" because you don't need to invent new words when your customers already have the perfect ones. And invest in limited editions and seasonal variants to keep the existing fan base excited without diluting the premium positioning.

What I Took Away

Always Test Your Gut Against the Math

This project changed how I approach brand briefs. Before this, I would have trusted the word clouds and the loudest themes in the data. Now I know that what people talk about and what actually drives their purchasing decision can be completely different things. Text analytics taught me to always run both. The qualitative to understand the story, and the regression to check if the story is actually true. I bring that habit to every project now.


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Marketing & Social Media Analyst. Data-driven storyteller. Making complex insights accessible to everyone who needs them. Based in Chicago.

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© 2025 Maung Annt. All rights reserved.

Marketing & Social Media Analyst. Data-driven storyteller. Making complex insights accessible to everyone who needs them. Based in Chicago.

Maung Annt rotating badge
© 2025 Maung Annt. All rights reserved.

Marketing & Social Media Analyst. Data-driven storyteller. Making complex insights accessible to everyone who needs them. Based in Chicago.

Maung Annt rotating badge
© 2025 Maung Annt. All rights reserved.
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Marketing & Social Media Analyst. Data-driven storyteller. Making complex insights accessible to everyone who needs them. Based in Chicago.

Maung Annt rotating badge
© 2025 Maung Annt. All rights reserved.